According to economic and financial data recorded in France, the transalpine outdoor hotel sector could perhaps escape the recession. This is the latest news from beyond the Alps.
The departure of bookings will play a decisive role in verifying the data, but January and February seem to have started well. Contrary to what was announced in the 4th quarter of 2022, the growth prospects for 2023 are rosier in the United States and precisely in the euro area, which is also why it is possible to hope to escape a recession. Several factors explain this: the unemployment rate remains low and economies continue to create jobs. In the United States, rising energy prices do not lead to a loss of income, Natixis indicates in the January 23, 2023 issue, because the country produces much of its own energy and generates an external surplus on this post.
The situation is very different in the euro area. Real interest rates remain negative, supporting domestic demand. In the United States, household consumption is also supported by the decline in the savings rate. Business investment is also resisting. The American consumer would have supported the business more than the European consumer. The ECB reported that home loan applications fell due to rising interest rates and weak consumer confidence.
In its latest issue, Crédoc (n°327, December 2022) points out that the middle classes are struggling with inflation. If in May 2021, in the midst of the Covid-19 epidemic, 31% of French people said they were in a vulnerable situation, in the summer of 2022 41% of the population only perceived themselves vulnerable, i.e. 10 points in more in a year. The increase in the sense of vulnerability is spreading widely and is affecting young people, students, low incomes, the unemployed and self-employed, categories in a precarious situation for some time and which had already been weakened during the Covid period. Now the middle classes, white collar workers and intermediate professions are added. 46% of the middle-lower classes say they have weakened, i.e. 17 points more in a year. They are feeling the sharp rise in prices on top of captive spending, especially for housing, which has been weighing more and more heavily on their budget for more than a decade.
In the light of these elements, put into perspective with feedback from operators indicating strong expectations for the 2023 summer holidays, we can estimate that once again the camping sector, through its network, its diversity of companies, some of which offer very accessible services, through its ability to make life simple and convivial, will provide answers to the concerns and anxieties of French and European citizens. It will certainly be necessary to be even more capable of offering moments of encounter around aperitifs and convivial lunches, reconnecting with their original vocation of creating bonds.
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